Pennsylvania mail voters: party registration margin?
3.0 pts (24h)PolitiqueOne-OffPolitique américaineÉlection8j
KalshiVérifier la disponibilitéKYC requisDonnées de résolution vérifiéesBien calibréAlerte qualité des donnéesDonnées obsolètes
Données au 26 oct. 2026, 16:21 UTC · politique pm-quality-4
Milieu du carnet sélectionné
D+37 to D+39.9 · —
Chargement du carnet sélectionné…
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Prix enregistré
D+37 to D+39.9 35%En tête parmi 7 options
D+37 to D+39.9 35%Qualité du marché
41 / 100
Faible qualitéVolume 24h
211,8 €
Intérêt ouvert
3,2 k $US
Intérêt ouvert moyenAchat / Vente
— / —
D+37 to D+39.9Écart
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Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 17 minutes
24 sept. 26, 21:00 UTC4 nov. 26, 14:59 UTC
Le graphique et les variations affichent les probabilités historiques enregistrées, pas le carnet sélectionné en direct.
Tendances
Ligne sélectionnée : milieu du carnet. Autres lignes : références enregistrées, éventuellement normalisées ; les variations sur 24h utilisent l’historique enregistré.
Conditions de la plateforme
Source : Kalshi
Ces conditions sont indicatives ; les opérations simulées de CoinRithm suivent leurs propres règles.
- Clôture anticipée:
- Oui
- Délai de règlement:
- 30m (indicatif)
Profondeur du marché · D+37 to D+39.9
Chargement du carnet sélectionné…
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Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
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PolymarketRègles
If the Democratic share minus the Republican share, in percentage points, of Pennsylvania returned mail ballots by party registration reported by the UF Election Lab for the 2026 general election is between 37 and 39.9 at 10:00 AM ET on November 4, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Règlement via:University of Florida Election Lab
- The value is the Democrat figure minus the Republican figure in the "Percent" column (share of mail ballots accepted) of the "Returned Mail Ballots by Party Registration" table on the Pennsylvania page of the UF Election Lab's 2026 Early Voting Tracker, as displayed to one decimal place at 10:00 AM ET on November 4, 2026. The "Percent Returned" column is not used. If the page is unavailable at that time, the same percentages computed from the acceptdem, acceptrep and accept_none values for Pennsylvania in the UF Election Lab's 2026 early vote data file (https://election.lab.ufl.edu/data-downloads/earlyvote/2026/US.csv) and rounded to one decimal place are used. A negative value is a Republican lead. Each range includes both of its endpoints. Updates posted after that time are not counted.
Règles de chaque résultat
- D+37 to D+39.9
- If the Democratic share minus the Republican share, in percentage points, of Pennsylvania returned mail ballots by party registration reported by the UF Election Lab for the 2026 general election is between 37 and 39.9 at 10:00 AM ET on November 4, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- D+40 or more
- If the Democratic share minus the Republican share, in percentage points, of Pennsylvania returned mail ballots by party registration reported by the UF Election Lab for the 2026 general election is at least 40 at 10:00 AM ET on November 4, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- D+34 to D+36.9
- If the Democratic share minus the Republican share, in percentage points, of Pennsylvania returned mail ballots by party registration reported by the UF Election Lab for the 2026 general election is between 34 and 36.9 at 10:00 AM ET on November 4, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- D+31 to D+33.9
- If the Democratic share minus the Republican share, in percentage points, of Pennsylvania returned mail ballots by party registration reported by the UF Election Lab for the 2026 general election is between 31 and 33.9 at 10:00 AM ET on November 4, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- D+28 to D+30.9
- If the Democratic share minus the Republican share, in percentage points, of Pennsylvania returned mail ballots by party registration reported by the UF Election Lab for the 2026 general election is between 28 and 30.9 at 10:00 AM ET on November 4, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Below D+25
- If the Democratic share minus the Republican share, in percentage points, of Pennsylvania returned mail ballots by party registration reported by the UF Election Lab for the 2026 general election is below 25 at 10:00 AM ET on November 4, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- D+25 to D+27.9
- If the Democratic share minus the Republican share, in percentage points, of Pennsylvania returned mail ballots by party registration reported by the UF Election Lab for the 2026 general election is between 25 and 27.9 at 10:00 AM ET on November 4, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.