KalshiFerméVérifier la disponibilitéKYC requis2% de fraisDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréCe marché est fermé et en attente d'une résolution confirmée.
Données de résolution non vérifiées
Ce résultat est inféré ou n'est pas appuyé par des preuves de règlement de niveau fournisseur.
Probabilité implicite actuelle
Yes, 3-6% 4%-5.3ptEn tête parmi 8 options
Qualité du marché
≤49 / 100
Faible qualitéVolume 24h
56 k €
Liquidité
25,4 k €
Liquidité élevéeÉcart
0.2 pt
Spread serréDonnées du marché
Mis à jour il y a 108 jours
Obsolète16 mars 26, 21:0021 avr. 27, 14:00
Tendances
4%
1%
1%
1%
1%
1%
0%
0%
Règles
If the margin of victory for Yes in the 2026 Virginia redistricting amendment falls at least 15%, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes.
- The margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type.
- For percentage points: the vote percentage received by Yes minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind Yes if Yes wins, or the candidate/party that finishes first if Yes loses.
- For raw votes: the total votes received by Yes minus the total votes received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind Yes if Yes wins, or the candidate/party/option that finishes first if Yes loses.
- For electoral votes: the electoral votes received by Yes minus the electoral votes received by the candidate/party/option with the second-most electoral votes if Yes wins, or the electoral votes received by Yes minus the electoral votes received by the candidate/party/option with the most electoral votes if Yes does not.
- Each margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound.
