KalshiVérifier la disponibilitéKYC requis2% de fraisDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréProbabilité implicite actuelle
Nithya Raman, ≥2% 28.6%En tête parmi 5 optionsAjusté de la marge : les cotes brutes dépassaient 100 % au total et ont été normalisées.
Qualité du marché
33 / 100
Faible qualitéVolume 24h
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Liquidité
1,7 k €
Faible liquiditéÉcart
7.0 pt
Spread largeDonnées du marché
Mis à jour il y a 12 minutes
9 juil. 26, 18:00 UTC3 nov. 27, 15:00 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Los Angeles mayoral election margin of victory? (Karen Bass)
KalshiLos Angeles mayoral election: voter turnout
KalshiWill Nithya Raman win Novembers LA Mayor election?
Manifold MarketsWill Nithya Raman Beat Karen Bass? (n/a if doesn’t advance)
Manifold MarketsWill Nithya Raman win the Los Angeles general election for mayor in 2026?
ForecastExWill Nithya Raman win Novembers LA Mayor election?
Manifold MarketsRègles
If the margin of victory for Nithya Raman in the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election falls within 2% to 100%, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes.
Règlement via:Los Angeles County Registrar-Recorder/County Clerk
- The margin of victory is the vote share received by Nithya Raman minus the vote share received by the candidate that finishes immediately behind Nithya Raman if Nithya Raman wins, or the candidate that finishes first if Nithya Raman loses.
- If Nithya Raman wins, the margin will be positive; if Nithya Raman loses, the margin will be negative; if Nithya Raman ties for first place, the margin shall be 0.
- Each margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, and no rounding shall be applied.
- For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range.
- If Nithya Raman runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying candidate will be summed.
