Los Angeles mayoral election margin of victory? (Karen Bass)
23.0 pts (24h)PolitiqueOne-OffÉlection1a
KalshiVérifier la disponibilitéKYC requisDonnées de résolution vérifiéesBien calibréMilieu du carnet sélectionné
Karen Bass, ≥2% · —
Chargement du carnet sélectionné…
—
Prix enregistré
Karen Bass, ≥2% 48.5%En tête parmi 5 options
Karen Bass, ≥2% 48.5%Qualité du marché
44 / 100
Faible qualitéVolume 24h
900,1 €
Intérêt ouvert
8,7 k $US
Intérêt ouvert moyenAchat / Vente
— / —
Karen Bass, ≥2%Écart
—
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 24 minutes
9 juil. 26, 18:00 UTC3 nov. 27, 15:00 UTC
Le graphique et les variations affichent les probabilités historiques enregistrées, pas le carnet sélectionné en direct.
Tendances
Ligne sélectionnée : milieu du carnet. Autres lignes : références enregistrées, éventuellement normalisées ; les variations sur 24h utilisent l’historique enregistré.
Conditions de la plateforme
Source : Kalshi
Ces conditions sont indicatives ; les opérations simulées de CoinRithm suivent leurs propres règles.
- Clôture anticipée:
- Oui
- Délai de règlement:
- 30m (indicatif)
Profondeur du marché · Karen Bass, ≥2%
Chargement du carnet sélectionné…
—
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Los Angeles mayoral election margin of victory? (Nithya Raman)
KalshiLos Angeles mayoral election: voter turnout
KalshiLos Angeles mayoral election margin of victory?
KalshiWill Nithya Raman Beat Karen Bass? (n/a if doesn’t advance)
Manifold MarketsWill Karen Bass win the Los Angeles general election for mayor in 2026?
ForecastExKaren Bass arrested by EOY2026?
Manifold MarketsRègles
If the margin of victory for Karen Bass in the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election falls within 2% to 100%, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes.
Règlement via:Los Angeles County Registrar-Recorder/County Clerk
- The margin of victory is the vote share received by Karen Bass minus the vote share received by the candidate that finishes immediately behind Karen Bass if Karen Bass wins, or the candidate that finishes first if Karen Bass loses. If Karen Bass wins, the margin will be positive; if Karen Bass loses, the margin will be negative; if Karen Bass ties for first place, the margin shall be 0. Each margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, and no rounding shall be applied. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If Karen Bass runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying candidate will be summed.
Règles de chaque résultat
- Karen Bass, ≥2%
- If the margin of victory for Karen Bass in the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election falls within 2% to 100%, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Karen Bass, ≥4%
- If the margin of victory for Karen Bass in the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election falls within 4% to 100%, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Karen Bass, ≥6%
- If the margin of victory for Karen Bass in the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election falls within 6% to 100%, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Karen Bass, ≥8%
- If the margin of victory for Karen Bass in the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election falls within 8% to 100%, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Karen Bass, ≥10%
- If the margin of victory for Karen Bass in the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election falls within 10% to 100%, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes.
