What will Pete Hegseth say during his IISS Shangri-La Dialogue address?
33.0% (24h)GéopolitiqueOne-Off
KalshiFerméVérifier la disponibilitéKYC requis2% de fraisCe marché s'est résolu: Taiwan (99%)
Résolu: 30 mai 2026, 15:45
Résultat Gagnant
Taiwan
À 7 jours
—
À 24 heures
—
Probabilité implicite actuelleCeasefire 1%-33.0%En tête parmi 17 options
Qualite du marche
40 / 100
Faible qualitéVolume 24h
1,6 k €
Liquidité
1,4 k €
Faible liquiditéAchat / Vente
- / 100.0%
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 13 jours
Obsolète28 mai 26, 2:0030 mai 26, 5:05
Chronologie des Probabilités
Ceasefire1%
Drone1%
Taiwan99%
Oil1%
Ukraine1%
AI / Artificial Intelligence99%
America First99%
Russia / Russian1%
Venezuela99%
Nuclear99%
Terrorist / Terrorism99%
Lethal99%
NATO99%
Trump (3+ times)99%
National Security99%
Event does not qualify1%
China / Chinese99%
1%
1%
99%
1%
1%
99%
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If a qualifying event does not occur, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Video of the IISS Shangri-La Dialogue 2026 will be primarily used to resolve the market; if a consensus by Kalshi employees cannot be reached using video, internal & external (official) transcripts of the IISS Shangri-La Dialogue 2026 will be used.
- Payout Criterion: The exact phrase/word, or a plural or possessive form of the phrase/word, must be used.
- Grammatical/tense inflections are otherwise not included.
- Plural nouns occurring within proper nouns and noun phrases (e.g. names, titles, etc) are included.
- For the purpose of this market, the live broadcast or stream will be used to resolve this event.