KalshiFerméVérifier la disponibilitéKYC requis2% de fraisDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréCe marché s'est résolu: Reform UK, ≥15% (98%)
Résolu: 14 août 2026, 14:28
Résolution vérifiée par le fournisseur
CoinRithm dispose d'éléments du fournisseur pour le gagnant et l'heure de règlement de ce marché.
Alerte qualité des donnéesDonnées obsolètes
Données au 14 août 2026, 13:40 UTC · politique pm-quality-3
Probabilité implicite actuelle
Reform UK, ≥20% 99%+4.0ptEn tête parmi 16 options
Qualité du marché
38 / 100
Faible qualitéVolume 24h
48,6 k €
Liquidité
100,5 k €
Liquidité élevéeDonnées du marché
Mis à jour il y a 18 jours
Obsolète7 juil. 26, 23:008 juil. 27, 14:00
Chronologie des Probabilités
Reform UK, ≥50%52%
Reform UK, ≥45%5%
Reform UK, ≥60%27%
Reform UK, ≥65%15%
Reform UK, ≥70%6%
99%
99%
99%
99%
99%
99%
98%
6%
5%
3%
2%
2%
1%
1%
1%
1%
Règles
If the margin of victory for Reform UK in the 2026 Clacton by-election falls within 5% to 100%, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes.
Règlement via:Tendring District Council
- The margin of victory is the vote share received by Reform UK minus the vote share received by the candidate that finishes immediately behind Reform UK if Reform UK wins, or the candidate that finishes first if Reform UK loses.
- If Reform UK wins, the margin will be positive; if Reform UK loses, the margin will be negative; if Reform UK ties for first place, the margin shall be 0.
- Each margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, and no rounding shall be applied.
- For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range.
- If Reform UK runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying candidate will be summed.
