KalshiVérifier la disponibilitéKYC requis2% de fraisDonnées de résolution vérifiéesGrossièrement calibréProbabilité implicite actuelleBefore 2029 17%-3.0%En tête parmi 4 options
Qualite du marche
36 / 100
Faible qualitéVolume 24h
2 k €
Liquidité
1,5 k €
Faible liquiditéAchat / Vente
16.0% / 20.0%
Spread
25.0%
Spread largeDonnées du marché
Mis à jour il y a 20 minutes
7 juil. 26, 21:001 janv. 29, 4:59
Tendances
Fonds fictifs uniquement, aucun argent réelCeci n'est pas un conseil financier
Résultat choisi
Before 202917%
Tendance du volume
$2.3k7 juil.5j de données12 juil.
Marchés Associés
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
74,4 k €Oui: 4%
POLYMARKET
POLYMARKET
Xi Jinping out before 2027?
46,6 k €Oui: 5%POLYMARKET
POLYMARKET
European country agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by...?
22,5 k €December 31: 6%POLYMARKET
POLYMARKET
Will China successfully propulsively land a rocket first stage before 2027?
1,6 k €Oui: 99%MANIFOLD MARKETS
MANIFOLD MARKETS
What countries will Trump visit in 2026?
1,5 k €Taiwan: 3%KALSHI
KALSHI
China overtakes USA’s economy by 2030?
1 k €Oui: 17%KALSHI
KALSHIActifs dans ces sujets
Actualités Associées
China May Be Following US Lead With Quiet Crackdown on AI ExportsDecrypt
ByteDance and Alibaba to Pull Agent Features as China Cracks Down on Humanlike AIDecrypt
Chinese survey ship near Taiwan pulls Polymarket clash odds to 5.5%Blockchain.News
China patrol near Taiwan draws Taipei rebuke as Polymarket holds England 39.5%Blockchain.News
Iran war shifts tourism, Polymarket trims China-Taiwan invasion odds to 4.25%Blockchain.News
Shanghai crypto forex case sends five to prison over $29M transfersCrypto NewsRègles
If People's Republic of China agrees to or announces the formal abolition of the hukou household registration system nationwide before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- An agreement or announcement qualifies if it involves any of the following:
- Formal signing of treaties Parliamentary approval with binding effect Official ratification Formal commitment by the head of state/government with constitutional authority Official statements by authorized ministers Official press releases Formal declarations during government proceedings Official statements to international bodies
- Phased implementation announcements and multi-party agreements where the country is a signatory also qualify.
- The following do NOT qualify:
- Preliminary discussions Conditional agreements contingent on circumstances Opposition party statements Leaked documents Think-tank recommendations General aspirations without specific commitment Draft legislation without approval Regional actions (unless specified) Retraction of previously announced commitments