Control of the US House of Representatives after the 2026 Elections
PolitiqueOne-OffPolitique américaineÉlectionÉlections de mi-mandat américaines 20268j
FutuurVérifier la disponibilitéDonnées de résolution vérifiéesProbabilité implicite actuelle
Non 89%
Non 89%Qualité du marché
31 / 100
Faible qualitéVolume 24h
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474,8 €
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Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will the Democrats win a majority in the House of Representatives in the 2026 elections?
Manifold MarketsWill the Republicans win a majority in the House of Representatives in the 2026 elections?
Manifold MarketsWhich party will hold the most seats in the US House of Representatives after the 2026 elections?
MetaculusWill Republicans maintain control of the US Senate following the 2026 midterm elections?
Manifold MarketsControl of the US Senate after the 2026 Elections
FutuurWill Republicans maintain control of the US house following the 2026 midterm elections?
Manifold MarketsRègles
On November 3rd, 2026, all 435 seats from the US House of Representatives will be in dispute.
- The elected representatives will start their term in the 120th United States Congress in January 2027.
- If at least 218 of the sitting representatives in the 120th United States Congress are from the same party, such party shall be considered the winning outcome of this market.
- If no party reaches 218 representatives, this market may be canceled.
- For the sake of this market, a representative is considered to be from a specific party when: A) they are elected with a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with such party, or B) they have publicly stated an intention to caucus with such party.
- Despite representatives only taking office in January 2027, Futuur may decide to resolve this market at any point between November 3rd, 2026 and January 2027 — or later, if needed — when it considers the official election results, concession speeches and eventual legal actions taken by parties have finally made clear what party (if any) will control the House of Representatives in the 120th US Congress.
