Probabilidad implícita actual
No 95%
Calidad del mercado
49 / 100
Baja calidadVolumen 24h
0 €
Liquidez
1,7 mil €
Baja liquidezCompra / Venta
2.0% / 7.2%
Spread
5.2 pt
Spread amplioCambio 7d
-0.5 pts
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 14 minutos
2 abr 26, 19:5431 dic 26, 17:00
Solo fondos simulados, sin dinero realNo es asesoramiento financiero
Resultado elegido
Yes5%
Comparar plataformas· No
Ordenado por calidad de mercado, luego liquidez y volumen de 24 h| Plataforma | Calidad | Probabilidad | vs. referencia | Vol 24h | Liq | Actualidad | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 PolymarketEsta páginaMejor en general | Baja | 95% | +90pt | 0 € | 1,7 mil € | hace 14 minutos | |
 Futuur88% de coincidencia · auto | Baja | 96% | +91pt | 0 € | 577,9 € | hace 14 minutos | Abrir → |
También disponible en Futuur
Bitcoin quantum-resistant upgrade implemented in 2026?
5m
96%
4%
32 • Baja calidadSpread desconocidoBaja liquidezMercado poco profundo
Volumen total5,4 €
Volumen 24h0 €
FUTUURReglas
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a quantum-resistant protocol upgrade is activated on the Bitcoin mainnet.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
- To qualify, the upgrade must satisfy all of the following: - The upgrade must constitute a consensus-layer change to the Bitcoin protocol that is live and enforced on the Bitcoin mainnet by the deadline.
- Proposals, drafts, code releases, miner signaling, node adoption, or activation on testnets or alternative networks do not qualify on their own. - The upgrade must enable the use of a post-quantum-secure signature scheme for standard Bitcoin transactions on the Bitcoin mainnet.
- The scheme must be intended to provide meaningful resistance against quantum attacks on transaction signing (e.g., attacks against ECDSA or successor schemes).
- Purely theoretical proposals, wallet-level changes, off-chain solutions, layer-2 systems, or other non-consensus-layer mitigations do not qualify. - The upgrade must make such quantum-resistant transaction types valid under Bitcoin consensus rules and generally available for use on the Bitcoin mainnet, even if their use is optional or not yet widely adopted.
Las probabilidades pueden diferir debido a diferentes estructuras de mercado, comisiones y grupos de participantes.
Tendencia de volumen
$859 jul7d de datos28 jul
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This market will resolve to “Yes” if, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a quantum-resistant protocol upgrade is activated on the Bitcoin mainnet.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
- To qualify, the upgrade must satisfy all of the following: - The upgrade must constitute a consensus-layer change to the Bitcoin protocol that is live and enforced on the Bitcoin mainnet by the deadline.
- Proposals, drafts, code releases, miner signaling, node adoption, or activation on testnets or alternative networks do not qualify on their own. - The upgrade must enable the use of a post-quantum-secure signature scheme for standard Bitcoin transactions on the Bitcoin mainnet.
- The scheme must be intended to provide meaningful resistance against quantum attacks on transaction signing (e.g., attacks against ECDSA or successor schemes).
- Purely theoretical proposals, wallet-level changes, off-chain solutions, layer-2 systems, or other non-consensus-layer mitigations do not qualify. - The upgrade must make such quantum-resistant transaction types valid under Bitcoin consensus rules and generally available for use on the Bitcoin mainnet, even if their use is optional or not yet widely adopted.