Probabilidad implícita actual
No 96%
No 96%Calidad del mercado
32 / 100
Baja calidadVolumen 24h
—
Liquidez
599,4 €
Baja liquidezTraders
6
Comentarios
0
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 2 minutos
Mercados Relacionados
Preguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, no una comparación de contratos equivalentes.
Reglas
If a quantum-resistant protocol upgrade is activated on the Bitcoin mainnet by December 31, 2026, 23:59 UTC, this market will resolve to "Yes".
- To qualify, the upgrade must satisfy all of the following:
- it must constitute a consensus-layer change to the Bitcoin protocol that is live and enforced on the Bitcoin mainnet by the deadline; it must enable the use of a post-quantum-secure signature scheme for standard Bitcoin transactions, intended to provide meaningful resistance against quantum attacks on transaction signing (e.g., attacks against ECDSA or successor schemes); and it must make such quantum-resistant transaction types valid under Bitcoin consensus rules and generally available for use on mainnet, even if their use is optional or not yet widely adopted.
- Proposals, drafts, code releases, miner signaling, node adoption, activations on testnets or alternative networks, wallet-level changes, off-chain solutions, and layer-2 systems do not qualify on their own. "Activated" means the upgrade's rules are enforced on Bitcoin mainnet blocks under consensus rules, following any required activation thresholds or lock-in periods.
- The Primary Designated Source is the Bitcoin Core project's official releases and documentation (bitcoincore.org; github.com/bitcoin/bitcoin), supported by a consensus of credible reporting, honoring the spirit of the market.
Comparación de fuentes de predicción
2 plataformas cotizan actualmente este mercado. La probabilidad de referencia entre plataformas de CoinRithm para Referencia CoinRithm es del 3%. La dispersión entre plataformas es de unos 2 puntos porcentuales.
Referencia CoinRithm 3% · 2 plataformas · 2 pt de dispersion entre venues