¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de Will the US stock market have experienced another lost decade before 2034??

Manifold Markets cotiza No al 83% a fecha de 29 de octubre de 2026.

Will the US stock market have experienced another lost decade before 2034?

AccionesOne-Off7a

Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosBien calibrado

Aviso de calidad de datosDatos obsoletos

Datos del 29 oct 2026, 13:55 UTC · política pm-quality-4

Pronóstico comunitario actual

No 83%

Pronosticadores

Tipo de pregunta

binary

Metodología

Play-money forecasting platform

Tipo de fuente

Pronóstico

Datos de mercado

Actualizado ayer

Desactualizado

16 sept 23, 20:03 UTC1 ene 34, 4:59 UTC

Tendencias

Resultado24hProbabilidad

Reglas

For the purpose of this market, a lost decade is defined as a 10-year period where the S&P500 ends at the same level it started.

Intraday extrema will be used to resolve this question, not closing or opening prices.
Note: The start date of that decade can predate market creation.
For example, if the SPX dropped below 1,729.44 on Monday, September 18th, 2023 (2 days after market creation), then the question would resolve to YES, since the high-point on September 18th, 2013, was 1,729.44.