Will Trump make a statement supporting mainland China over Taiwan during his term?
Política de EE. UU.One-OffChina2a
Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actualNo 58.5%
Pronosticadores
15
Tipo de pregunta
binary
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 1 hora
Retrasado23 feb 25, 1:05 UTC21 ene 29, 4:59 UTC
Tendencias
Reglas
Calling Taiwan a “renegade province” or “rebellious” or saying they are responsible for the ongoing conflict or any escalation thereof for any reason counts.
- Saying he wants to make a deal whereby Taiwan and China will be united into a Big Beautiful country would count as it is the pro-China stance on the conflict under any reasonable understanding.
- Merely threatening or promising not to defend Taiwan, e.g. because of their relatively low commitment to defense spending or lack of trade concessions would not count.
- I will apply a “same breath” rule to retractions, anything contradicted in the same tweet or interview answer doesn’t count, but after that walkbacks and retractions don’t matter.
- For a speech any retraction in the same speech counts, but not after taking questions.
