Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actualSí 69%
Pronosticadores
29
Tipo de pregunta
binary
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 14 horas
Desactualizado15 jul 26, 5:22 UTC1 jun 27, 23:59 UTC
Tendencias
Mercados Relacionados
Preguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, no una comparación de contratos equivalentes.
Will the 2026–27 El Niño be the strongest on record?
PolymarketWhat will the peak RONI value be during the 2026-27 El Niño season?
KalshiWhat will the peak RONI be for the 2026–27 El Niño?
PolymarketWhat will the peak RONI value for El Niño be during the NDJ 2026-27 season?
KalshiWill there be a Super El Niño this winter (2026–27)?
PolymarketHow warm will El Niño get? Highest weekly Niño 3.4 anomaly published by NOAA CPC for the weeks of Oct 21 – Nov 11, 2026
Manifold MarketsReglas
The original resolution criteria incorrectly states that the strongest El Niño ever had a three-month mean RONI of +2.69°C. According to the resolution source, the record is actually +2.4°C. However, for fairness purposes I will NOT be changing the original resolution Criteria.
- This market will resolve to YES if the RONI value from the source below reaches +2.7°C or higher.
- If the peak RONI value from the source below never reaches or exceeds the above value (+2.7°C), this market will resolve to NO. https://cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso/roni/
- Resolution criteria
- This market resolves to YES if the following condition is met for any three-month running mean season during the El Niño event peaking in late 2026 or early 2027:
- The official Relative Oceanic Niño Index (RONI) reaches +2.70°C or higher (strictly exceeding the historical record of +2.69°C set during the 1982-1983 winter).