Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actualNo 66.7%
Pronosticadores
31
Tipo de pregunta
binary
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 15 horas
Desactualizado11 dic 25, 17:40 UTC31 dic 30, 23:59 UTC
Tendencias
Mercados Relacionados
Preguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, no una comparación de contratos equivalentes.
Will U.S. data center electricity consumption exceed 10% of total U.S. power demand by end of 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill SpaceX deploy an in-house turbine generator to a data center before Boom Supersonic?
Manifold MarketsAI data center in space by which date?
PolymarketAI data center in space by ?
FutuurAI data center in space by December 31, 2027? [Polymarket]
Manifold MarketsHow many states will adopt data center moratoriums in 2026?
KalshiReglas
Resolves YES if, before January 1, 2031, a space-based data center system meets ALL of:
- Location: In space (beyond the Kármán line, 100km altitude)
- Functional compute: Actively processing workloads with data transfer to/from Earth
- Coherent system: Either a single structure or a distributed constellation capable of training a standard distributed transformer model (e.g., data-parallel or tensor-parallel training with gradient synchronization).
- Compute capacity should be no less than a terrestrial 100MW data center running H100s could achieve.
- Scale and duration: ≥100MW average power draw by all equipment necessary for operation of the data center (including GPUs/TPUs/accelerators, CPUs, memory, networking, and cooling), sustained for ≥30 days continuous operation.
Mercados abiertos
WeatherKALSHIHighest temperature in Los Angeles on Sep 8, 2026?
- 90° or above+65.0pt95.2%
- 88° to 89°-29.0pt1%
- 84° to 85°-6.0pt1%
+3 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 622,7 mil €
- Volumen 24h
- 579,5 mil €
KALSHIWhere will it rain on Sep 8, 2026?
- New Orleans+41.0pt99%
- Houston+62.0pt99%
- Minneapolis+4.0pt99%
+19 resultados más
- Volumen total
KALSHIHighest temperature in Austin on Sep 8, 2026?
- 102° to 103°+69.0pt95.2%
- 100° to 101°-59.0pt1%
- 98° to 99°-10.0pt1%
+3 resultados más
- Volumen total
FORECASTEXWill the highest temperature in Los Angeles (LA)(LAX)(KLAX) exceed 85 F on September 8, 2026?
- Yes98%
- No2%
- Volumen total
- 108,2 mil €
- Volumen 24h
- 108,2 mil €
POLYMARKETHighest temperature in Munich on September 9?
- 22°C+72.0pt97%
- 23°C-8.5pt2%
- 24°C-0.8pt1%
+8 resultados más
POLYMARKETHighest temperature in Chengdu on September 9?
- 27°C+70.0pt100%
- 21°C or below-0.9pt0%
- 22°C-0.9pt0%
+8 resultados más
- Highest temperature in Hong Kong on September 9?
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles (LA)(LAX)(KLAX) exceed 86 F on September 8, 2026?
- Highest temperature in Chicago on Sep 8, 2026?
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles (LA)(LAX)(KLAX) exceed 87 F on September 8, 2026?
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles (LA)(LAX)(KLAX) exceed 89 F on September 8, 2026?
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles (LA)(LAX)(KLAX) exceed 88 F on September 8, 2026?
- Highest temperature in Los Angeles on Sep 9, 2026?
- Highest temperature in San Francisco on Sep 8, 2026?
- Highest temperature in Tokyo on September 9?
- Highest temperature in Phoenix on Sep 8, 2026?
Preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de Will there be a functional ≥100MW data center in space before 2031??
- Manifold Markets cotiza No al 67% a fecha de 8 de septiembre de 2026.
- ¿Cuándo se resuelve Will there be a functional ≥100MW data center in space before 2031??
- Está previsto que Will there be a functional ≥100MW data center in space before 2031? se resuelva el 31 de diciembre de 2030.
- ¿Cómo se liquida Will there be a functional ≥100MW data center in space before 2031??
- Manifold Markets liquida este mercado del siguiente modo: Resolves YES if, before January 1, 2031, a space-based data center system meets ALL of: