Will the US implement information security requirements for frontier AI models by 2028?
One-OffTecnologíaPolíticaRegulación2a
Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosBien calibradoPronóstico comunitario actual
Sí 87.9%
Sí 87.9%Pronosticadores
4
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Actualizado hace 3 horas
Desactualizado28 abr 23, 13:54 UTC31 dic 28, 23:59 UTC
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This market will resolve to yes if the US creates a policy by 2028 mandating information security protections (including cyber, physical, and personnel security) for frontier AI models.
- These security measures should be in place during model training to limit unintended proliferation of dangerous models.
- Frontier AI models are those with highly general capabilities (over a certain threshold) or trained with a certain compute budget (e.g. as much compute as $1 billion can buy today).
- Luke Muehlhauser from Open Philanthropy suggests this idea in his April 2023 post, "12 tentative ideas for US AI policy." This market idea was proposed by Michael Chen.
