¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de Will the Supreme Court hear a case about prediction market pre-emption??

Manifold Markets cotiza Yes al 61.9% a fecha de 27 de octubre de 2026.

Will the Supreme Court hear a case about prediction market pre-emption?

Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptable

Pronóstico comunitario actual

Sí 61.9%

Pronosticadores

Tipo de pregunta

binary

Metodología

Play-money forecasting platform

Tipo de fuente

Pronóstico

Datos de mercado

Actualizado hace 17 horas

Desactualizado

8 sept 25, 18:18 UTC31 dic 29, 19:13 UTC

Tendencias

Resultado24hProbabilidad

Reglas

Will the SCOTUS agree to hear a case about CFTC pre-emption wrt to prediction markets / events contracts by 2030?

The case can be about Kalshi or any other event contract venue.
The spirit of the market intends to resolve on the issue of whether or not state sports betting laws will be pre-empted, but in the interest of avoiding rules issues, any preemption case about PMs will do.
Resolution criteria
Resolves YES if, by market close, the U.S. Supreme Court grants certiorari in a case where the Questions Presented include whether federal law (e.g., the Commodity Exchange Act) preempts state gambling laws as applied to prediction markets/event contracts, and the Court holds oral argument (including in a consolidated case).
Summary dispositions without argument and emergency applications on the shadow docket do NOT count.