Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actualSí 90%
Pronosticadores
6
Tipo de pregunta
binary
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 2 horas
Desactualizado2 jun 26, 1:32 UTC31 dic 26, 23:59 UTC
Tendencias
Mercados Relacionados
Preguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, no una comparación de contratos equivalentes.
Will Americans rate the economy positively before the end of 2026?
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FutuurIn 20 years, will the employment:population ratio for prime-age Americans be below 70%?
Manifold MarketsVisitors to Florida in 2026
KalshiWill GameStop acquire eBay in 2026?
KalshiReglas
Resolution criteria
- This market resolves to YES if the seasonally adjusted U.S. Civilian Labor Force Participation Rate (LFPR) drops below 61.5% (i.e., is reported as 61.4% or lower) for any monthly reporting period in the calendar year 2026 (January 2026 through December 2026).
- Otherwise, this market resolves to NO.
- Source of Truth: The primary source of truth is the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) monthly "Employment Situation" report.
- Specifically, this is the seasonally adjusted series LNS11300000, which can also be tracked on FRED under the series name CIVPART.
- Revisions: The market will resolve based on the values published for each month of 2026 as of the release of the December 2026 data (typically published in early January 2027), including any retroactive revisions to the 2026 months published up to that date.
Mercados abiertos
Macro & EconomyKALSHIVisitors to Florida in 2026
- Above 136 million97%
- Above 138 million-2.0pt94%
- Above 140 million+3.0pt80%
+4 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 130,4 mil €
- Volumen 24h
- 51 mil €
KALSHIWill GameStop acquire eBay in 2026?
- No92%
- Yes8%
- Volumen total
- 2,7 M €
- Volumen 24h
- 17,9 mil €
KALSHIHow high will the Nikkei 225 get in 2026?
- At least ¥73,000-35.0pt30%
- At least ¥74,000-40.0pt27%
- At least ¥80,00024%
+5 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 16,9 mil €
KALSHIPort of New York and New Jersey container volume in 2026
- Above 8.4 million TEUs95%
- Above 8.6 million TEUs+4.0pt85%
- Above 8.7 million TEUs+3.0pt73%
+6 resultados más
- Volumen total
KALSHICzech National Bank rate decision in September
- Maintain current rate+5.0pt92.4%
- Hike 25bps-6.0pt1.9%
- Cut 50bps1.9%
+4 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 44 mil €
KALSHIWill the S&P finish positive this year?
- Yes-1.0pt89%
- No11%
- Volumen total
- 893,7 mil €
- Volumen 24h
- 8,6 mil €
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- Traffic through the Suez Canal? (9/7 - 9/13)
Preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de Will the share of Americans in the workforce drop below 61.5% in 2026??
- Manifold Markets cotiza Yes al 90% a fecha de 9 de septiembre de 2026.
- ¿Cuándo se resuelve Will the share of Americans in the workforce drop below 61.5% in 2026??
- Está previsto que Will the share of Americans in the workforce drop below 61.5% in 2026? se resuelva el 31 de diciembre de 2026.
- ¿Cómo se liquida Will the share of Americans in the workforce drop below 61.5% in 2026??
- Manifold Markets liquida este mercado del siguiente modo: Resolution criteria