¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de Will the first quantum computer to factor two 2048-bit RSA moduli do so in under a minute??

Manifold Markets cotiza No al 86.4% a fecha de 27 de octubre de 2026.

Will the first quantum computer to factor two 2048-bit RSA moduli do so in under a minute?

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No 86.4%

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Actualizado hace 7 horas

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7 may 23, 19:44 UTC13 jul 44, 4:59 UTC

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This question is meant to assess what the clock speed of the first large-scale fault-tolerant computers will be like.

It asks about the first system which factors at least two 2048-bit semiprimes, without any "manual tweaks".
It resolves YES if, based on reporting and technical publications, it appears that this system is capable, with a reasonably proficient human operator, of factoring two new random 2048-bit semiprimes given to it in under a minute, with at least 95% probability over the choice of the semiprimes.
"Manual tweaks" here includes any human using their hands or tools to interface with the machine in ways that can't in principle be done using a keyboard.
This is to rule out circuits which are engineered with the modulus "baked in".
Flipping a switch on and off by hand to reset the machine would not be a manual tweak.