Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptableAviso de calidad de datosDatos de la fuente degradados
Datos del 26 oct 2026, 3:24 UTC · política pm-quality-4
Pronóstico comunitario actualSí 73%
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12
Tipo de pregunta
binary
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
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Pronóstico
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Actualizado hace 1 hora
Retrasado23 abr 23, 12:06 UTC31 dic 50, 22:59 UTC
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Preguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, no una comparación de contratos equivalentes.
Which milestone occurs first: AGI deployment, Starship Mars landing, or ice-free Arctic summer?
Manifold MarketsWill the north pole be ice free by 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill more than 20% of all transoceanic freight/shipping be routed through the Arctic before 2050?
Manifold Markets(M5000 subsidy) Will the Arctic sea ice fully melt before the year 2050?
Manifold MarketsArctic sea ice minimum to decrease in 2027?
FutuurWhere will it rain on Oct 25, 2026?
KalshiReglas
This question will resolve as YES if the Arctic region experiences an ice-free summer by the year 2050.
- An ice-free summer is defined as a period of at least five consecutive days during which the Arctic sea ice extent is less than one million square kilometers, as measured by the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC).
- The NSIDC uses a 30-year baseline (1981-2010) to calculate average sea ice extent, and an ice-free summer would represent a significant departure from this baseline.
- The question will resolve as NO if the Arctic region does not experience an ice-free summer by the year 2050, or if the data is inconclusive.
