Will Starship have a 99% success rate as of its 500th payload-carrying launch?
TecnologíaOne-OffEspacio5a
Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosBien calibradoPronóstico comunitario actualSí 60%
Pronosticadores
29
Tipo de pregunta
binary
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 1 hora
Retrasado4 ene 24, 2:01 UTC2 ene 32, 6:59 UTC
Tendencias
Reglas
Of launches carrying non-dummy payloads, whether SpaceX internal payloads such as Starlink satellites or customer payloads, will the first 500 launches have a 99% success rate or higher? That is, will at least 495 of them deliver their payload to the intended destination?
- IFT-1 and IFT-2 do not qualify, so the count has not started yet.
- Future "test launches" will be counted or not based on whether they carried a payload intended for some useful application.
- (The Falcon Heavy test launch would not be included under this definition.) Cargo, crew, and propellant cargo for refueling missions will all be included.
- Accidents resulting in complete loss of payload during pre-launch operations (eg AMOS-6) will count as failures for this count.
- If the SpaceX Starship is retired before this question resolves, it will resolve based on whether the success rate at retirement is >= 99%.
