¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de Will SpaceX's first Starship Cargo mission successfully land on the moon??

Manifold Markets cotiza Yes al 80.7% a fecha de 28 de octubre de 2026.

Will SpaceX's first Starship Cargo mission successfully land on the moon?

Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptable

Pronóstico comunitario actual

Sí 80.7%

Pronosticadores

Tipo de pregunta

binary

Metodología

Play-money forecasting platform

Tipo de fuente

Pronóstico

Datos de mercado

Actualizado hace 1 hora

Retrasado

11 sept 23, 22:35 UTC2 ene 31, 4:59 UTC

Tendencias

Resultado24hProbabilidad

Reglas

For a successful mission Starship needs to soft-land on the moon, and the payloads on the lander need to be operational.

Derivatives of Starship will count as Starship for this market, what counts as a "derivative" of Starship is up to my judgement.
HLS is a derivative of Starship, but only missions which deliver cargo to the surface of the moon count for this market.
This will tentatively stay open until a cargo mission is attempted or it becomes clear that none will actualize; the close date isn't particularly relevant other than as a measure of expected timelines