Will SpaceX outperform the S&P 500 over the 2 years following its IPO?
ETFCustomEspacioAccionesEventos corporativosTecnología1a
Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actualNo 58%
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20
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binary
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Actualizado hace 15 horas
Desactualizado3 jun 26, 14:50 UTC12 jun 28, 22:00 UTC
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Would an investment of $10,000 in SpaceX at its closing price on the day of its IPO have greater total returns than the same amount invested in an index fund tracking the S&P 500 after two years?
- For resolution, I plan to chart the return on $10,000 in SpaceX (SPCX) vs. Vanguard S&P 500 ETF (VOO), with dividends re-invested, on Morningstar (or equivalent), from the day of IPO to the same calendar day two years later.
- If SpaceX is acquired or delisted, I will resolve early using the total returns of both up to that point.
- If VOO is discontinued, I will use an equivalent low-cost ETF.
- If the SpaceX IPO is canceled or delayed past 2026, the market will resolve N/A.