Will Scott Aaronson ever pay out any award for a discovery that dramatically weakens the possibility of scalable quantum computing?
One-OffTecnologíaCienciaManifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptableAviso de calidad de datosDatos de la fuente degradados
Datos del 17 oct 2026, 8:50 UTC · política pm-quality-4
Pronóstico comunitario actualNo 81.7%
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11
Tipo de pregunta
binary
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
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Pronóstico
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Actualizado hace 12 horas
Desactualizado27 nov 22, 21:10 UTC1 ene 00, 5:00 UTC
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https://scottaaronson.blog/?p=902
- This market resolves YES if any such award is paid, of any amount.
- It resolves NO if Scott announces that scalable quantum has been conclusivly demonstrated as possible and the award is impossible to win.
- If the award is invalidated for any other reason, this resolves N/A. For a market that's only about his full $100,00 award that scalable quantum computing is impossible, see here:
- (https://manifold.markets/embed/IsaacKing/will-scott-aaronson-ever-pay-out-hi)
