Will Matt Levine write about "a buy-and-hold prediction-markets exchange-traded fund" before 2026-11-07?
One-OffETFExchangesNegocios y empresas22dManifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actualSí 56.7%
Pronosticadores
2
Tipo de pregunta
binary
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 2 horas
Desactualizado8 nov 24, 22:09 UTC8 nov 26, 7:59 UTC
Tendencias
Mercados Relacionados
Preguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, no una comparación de contratos equivalentes.
Will Matt Levine have a Substack by EOY 2026?
Manifold MarketsWhen will Matt Levine write/talk about a new mistake made at Citi Bank caused by bad UI
Manifold MarketsWill Matt Levine create a market on Manifold by end of 2027?
Manifold MarketsWhich prediction markets will MNX list before November?
Manifold MarketsLaw banning sports prediction markets enacted in 2026?
PolymarketWill a law restricting sports trades on prediction markets be enacted in 2026?
PredictItReglas
On the Money Stuff column on 7th November, Matt Levine wrote:
- “Design a product for retail investors who want to use prediction markets as a savings device” strikes me as a very good exercise for the reader, and I expect that within two years I will be writing about a buy-and-hold prediction-markets exchange-traded fund.
- Will this prediction come true?
- Resolves Yes if Matt Levine talks about the existence of prediction market ETFs on Money Stuff, or an 'equivalent' outlet (eg.
- Money Stuff gets bought out from Bloomberg by another news organisation, or spins off into a separate blog/substack which is Matt Levine's primary outlet.
- Basically not if he tweets about it or mentions it off-hand in an interview or podcast or something), as one of the 'main stories' and not under 'Things happen' (or equivalent)