Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actualSí 57.5%
Pronosticadores
43
Tipo de pregunta
binary
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 1 hora
Retrasado24 sept 25, 16:51 UTC24 sept 27, 16:25 UTC
Tendencias
Mercados Relacionados
Preguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, no una comparación de contratos equivalentes.
Reglas
Polymarket and Kalshi are currently hotly competing for prediction market dominance, and are about the same size.
- This resolves once that is no longer the case, and one is dramatically more successful than the other.
- [image]I don't want to define a single metric since that can be goodharted, but I'm looking for roughly a 90/10 split or better of general prediction market mindspace and finance-space.
- (Between them only.
- The emergence of a third competitor doesn't factor in.)
- For comparison I would say that Kalshi seems on vibes to be pretty close to beating PredictIt, or possibly has already.