Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptableAviso de calidad de datosDatos de la fuente degradados
Datos del 24 oct 2026, 22:00 UTC · política pm-quality-4
Pronóstico comunitario actualNo 93.6%
Pronosticadores
24
Tipo de pregunta
binary
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 59 minutos
Retrasado29 dic 25, 23:10 UTC31 dic 26, 23:59 UTC
Tendencias
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ForecastExReglas
Resolution Criteria
- This market resolves YES if Iran enriches uranium to 90% purity (weapons-grade) or higher at any point during 2026, as verified by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) or credible intelligence assessments.
- Resolution will be based on reports from the IAEA (https://www.iaea.org/), official statements from the U.S. State Department or intelligence community, or peer-reviewed analysis from established nuclear research institutions such as the Institute for Science and International Security (https://isis-online.org/).
- The market resolves NO if Iran does not achieve weapons-grade enrichment during 2026, regardless of whether it increases enrichment levels below 90%.
- As of June 2025, Iran possessed 441 kilograms of uranium enriched to 60%, which is just below weapons-grade.
- Weapons-grade uranium is enriched to 90%.
