Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosBien calibradoPronóstico comunitario actualNo 50.5%
Pronosticadores
8
Tipo de pregunta
binary
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 18 horas
Desactualizado5 ene 26, 4:23 UTC7 ene 27, 4:10 UTC
Tendencias
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Resolves NO if I can't or don't find a way by then.
- I'm not counting earlier trade gains/losses as "profit at resolve-time.* Resolves no sooner than Jan 6th 2026 and may freely resolve otherwise, either way, at my discretion.
- I may trade on this market; however I won't buy a large YES position to try to swallow all the upside directly before close if enough advantage to share is just freely sitting around, and obviously I cannot make a profit by resolving NO.
- I will make a good-faith effort to lock in a profit of at least 1M in the event that I resolve YES, though it is possible that a very carefully-timed trade will wipe out my upside while I'm resolving the market.
- Other traders agree that in the event that this occurs that there in no crying in baseball.
- I do not promise to not scheme or plot market moves behind closed doors.
