¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de Will Hans Niemann become World Chess Champion within the next 25 years??

Manifold Markets cotiza No al 93.8% a fecha de 27 de octubre de 2026.

Will Hans Niemann become World Chess Champion within the next 25 years?

Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptable

Pronóstico comunitario actual

No 93.8%

Pronosticadores

Tipo de pregunta

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Metodología

Play-money forecasting platform

Tipo de fuente

Pronóstico

Datos de mercado

Actualizado hace 17 horas

Desactualizado

31 ene 24, 16:54 UTC31 dic 49, 20:59 UTC

Tendencias

Resultado24hProbabilidad

Reglas

He has declared his intention to do so: https://hansniemann.substack.com/p/the-tide-is-slowly-shifting

Resolves YES when he is declared classical World Chess Champion by FIDE or beats a lineal successor of Magnus Carlsen in a match widely acknowledged as the classical World Chess Championship (a la Kramnik).
Resolves NO in all other cases