Will GiveWell recommend a grant to support unconditional cash transfers before 2027?
TecnologíaOne-OffSociety & Culture3m
Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actual
No 64.6%
Pronosticadores
38
Tipo de pregunta
binary
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 14 minutos
18 dic 22, 15:25 UTC31 dic 26, 23:59 UTC
Tendencias
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KalshiReglas
This question resolves positively if GiveWell gives a grant or publishes a recommendation that grants be given to unconditional cash transfers on or before December 31, 2026.
- Or if a charity undertaking the same work is designated a "Top Charity" or a recipient of "All Funds" before the deadline.
- This resolves according to a statement from GiveWell or a credible news organisation.
- It resolves "No" otherwise.
- The most likely resolution mechanism is that GiveWell writes "yes" in the column "Have we recommended one or more grants to support this program?" in the “Cash transfers” row of the GiveWell program reviews spreadsheet (https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1TG7WRU85p1SEjir-5qvIEg4kVG9a4Lnzdgwcub8aKSs/edit#gid=0) or a spreadsheet that supersedes it.
- The cash tranfers must be unconditional in the sense that they are given regardless of other outcomes.
