Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actualNo 94.6%
Pronosticadores
23
Tipo de pregunta
binary
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 12 horas
Desactualizado21 nov 22, 0:19 UTC31 dic 28, 23:59 UTC
Tendencias
Mercados Relacionados
Preguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, no una comparación de contratos equivalentes.
Will Jon Ossoff run and win the 2028 Presidential Election?
Manifold MarketsWill Elon Musk run in the 2036 Presidential Election.
Manifold MarketsWill Elon Musk run in the 2032 Presidential Election
Manifold MarketsWill Ivanka Trump run in a presidential primary election before 2036?
Manifold MarketsBalance of Power: 2026 Midterms
PolymarketTexas Senate winner?
KalshiReglas
Update 2025-06-06 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator's comment, in response to a query about constitutional eligibility, suggests that the market considers the possibility of changes to constitutional eligibility for Elon Musk.
- This implies that current ineligibility does not automatically preclude a YES resolution if legal frameworks (e.g., via a constitutional amendment) were to change to permit him to run and he subsequently does so.
- Update 2025-06-06 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator specifies that the market tracks any serious candidacy effort, regardless of whether a constitutional amendment succeeds.
- YES if Elon Musk either:
- Is officially recognized as a candidate by filing FEC Form 2, OR
- Appears on at least one state’s official presidential ballot by Election Day 2028.