Will Caroline Ellison resume posting on Tumblr when she is released from prison?
CriptoOne-OffCrimen y justicia1aManifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actualNo 69.1%
Pronosticadores
19
Tipo de pregunta
binary
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 17 horas
Desactualizado1 nov 24, 17:47 UTC8 nov 27, 7:59 UTC
Tendencias
Mercados Relacionados
Preguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, no una comparación de contratos equivalentes.
Will Caroline Ellison be arrested before 2028?
Manifold MarketsWill Austin Chen publicly regret hiring Caroline Ellison before 2028?
Manifold MarketsCaroline Ellison still working for Manifund by EOY?
Manifold MarketsWill SBF, Ryan Salame, or Caroline Ellison place a trade on a prediction market within a year after their release?
Manifold MarketsImran Khan released from prison by December 31, 2026?
PolymarketNothing Ever Happens: 2026
PolymarketReglas
Caroline Ellison was sentenced to two years in prison for her role in the FTX scandal, and is set to begin her sentence on or around November 7, 2024.
- Before the FTX collapse, she was a semi-frequent poster on Tumblr, under the username worldoptimization (the blog is currently deactivated but still viewable, and could be reactivated in the future).
- This question asks whether she will (publicly) resume posting on Tumblr within a year of her expected release date, under either the existing worldoptimization username or a new one.
- If Tumblr ceases to exist before then, this will resolve to "NO".
- Update 2025-04-06 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Criteria for a 'Yes' Outcome:
- Real Activity: A one-off post or a post stating no further posts will be made does not count.
