Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actualSí 92.4%
Pronosticadores
15
Tipo de pregunta
binary
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 9 minutos
17 jun 26, 5:15 UTC11 sept 26, 12:25 UTC
Tendencias
Activos Sensibles al Macro
Mercados Relacionados
Preguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, no una comparación de contratos equivalentes.
Will September 2026 headline CPI-U rise at least 0.3% month-over-month?
Manifold MarketsWill August 2026 core CPI-U rise at least 0.3% month-over-month?
Manifold MarketsWill core CPI be above headline CPI in August 2026?
KalshiWill November 2026 core CPI-U rise at least 0.3% month-over-month?
Manifold MarketsUS headline CPI inflation in December 2027
KalshiUS headline CPI inflation in December 2036
KalshiReglas
This market resolves YES if the initial BLS Consumer Price Index release for August 2026 reports that headline CPI-U rose 0.3% or more month-over-month on a seasonally adjusted basis.
- Use the all-items Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U), BLS series CUSR0000SA0, and the seasonally adjusted percent change from July 2026 to August 2026 in the first BLS August 2026 CPI release.
- Resolve NO if that seasonally adjusted month-over-month change is 0.2% or lower.
- Do not use core CPI, year-over-year CPI, PCE, PPI, not-seasonally-adjusted monthly change, real earnings, or later annual revisions unless BLS corrects the initial August 2026 release before resolution.
- If the August 2026 CPI release is delayed, wait for the first BLS release of the August 2026 figure unless there is no BLS August 2026 CPI release by September 18, 2026, in which case resolve N/A. Creation context: {"latest_official_context": {"core_cpi_u_may_2026_mom_sa": 0.2, "headline_cpi_u_may_2026_mom_sa": 0.5, "headline_cpi_u_may_2026_yoy": 4.2, "note": "At creation time, June/July/August 2026 CPI releases were still future releases.
- The latest official CPI release available locally was May 2026.", "release": "Consumer Price Index, May 2026"}, "metric": "Seasonally adjusted all-items CPI-U percent change from July 2026 to August 2026", "related_non_duplicates": ["June and July 2026 CPI/PCE/PPI markets are different reference-month or different-release markets.", "Core CPI, year-over-year CPI, PCE inflation, PPI, and real-earnings markets are not duplicates.", "Calendar-year inflation markets are not duplicates of a single-month headline CPI-U MoM threshold."], "release_schedule": "BLS's CPI release schedule lists the August 2026 reference month for Friday, September 11, 2026 at 08:30 Eastern.", "resolver_surface": "Initial BLS Consumer Price Index release for August 2026", "series": "CUSR0000SA0", "source_fetch_caveat": "Official BLS schedule pages were verified via web/search tooling before creation; BLS pages can return HTTP 403 or time out from raw Python requests on this host.", "threshold": "+0.3% month-over-month or higher"}.
Mercados abiertos
Inflation
POLYMARKETFed Decision in September?
- 25 bps increase+2.0pt54%
- No change-3.0pt45%
- 50+ bps increase1%
+2 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 89,9 M €
- Volumen 24h
- 1,7 M €
KALSHIInflation in August 2026 (CPI YoY)
- Above 2.5%99%
- Above 2.6%99%
- Above 2.8%99%
+23 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 541,2 mil €
- Volumen 24h
- 30,7 mil €
KALSHICPI in August
- Above 0.1%99%
- Above -0.4%+1.0pt99%
- Above -0.3%99%
+12 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 334,2 mil €
- Volumen 24h
- 12,8 mil €
POLYMARKETFed rate hike by which date?
- October Meeting+1.0pt53.9%
- September Meeting+1.0pt46.1%
- April Meeting-0.1pt0%
+2 resultados más
POLYMARKETCore CPI MoM - August 2026
- 0.2%-1.5pt51.4%
- 0.3%+4.5pt34.3%
- 0.1%-1.5pt10.5%
+4 resultados más
KALSHINYC median asking rent in December 2026
- Above $3,80095%
- Above $3,90081%
- Above $4,00044%
+5 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 77,9 mil €
- Volumen 24h
- 5,5 mil €
Criptos relacionadas
Preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de Will August 2026 headline CPI-U rise at least 0.3% month-over-month??
- Manifold Markets cotiza Yes al 92% a fecha de 8 de septiembre de 2026.
- ¿Cuándo se resuelve Will August 2026 headline CPI-U rise at least 0.3% month-over-month??
- Está previsto que Will August 2026 headline CPI-U rise at least 0.3% month-over-month? se resuelva el 11 de septiembre de 2026.
- ¿Cómo se liquida Will August 2026 headline CPI-U rise at least 0.3% month-over-month??
- Manifold Markets liquida este mercado del siguiente modo: This market resolves YES if the initial BLS Consumer Price Index release for August 2026 reports that headline CPI-U rose 0.3% or more month-over-month on a seasonally adjusted basis.