¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de Will an optimal first move for white in chess be known by 2040??

Manifold Markets cotiza No al 77.8% a fecha de 27 de octubre de 2026.

¿Cuándo se resuelve Will an optimal first move for white in chess be known by 2040??

Está previsto que Will an optimal first move for white in chess be known by 2040? se resuelva el 31 de diciembre de 2040.

Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptable

Pronóstico comunitario actual

No 77.8%

Pronosticadores

Tipo de pregunta

binary

Metodología

Play-money forecasting platform

Tipo de fuente

Pronóstico

Datos de mercado

Actualizado hace 11 horas

Desactualizado

6 feb 23, 19:12 UTC31 dic 40, 23:59 UTC

Tendencias

Resultado24hProbabilidad

Reglas

This market resolves YES if, by 2040, there is a particular first move for white in a standard game of chess which we know to be optimal.

That is, we must have a proof that the outcome of the game with perfect play after that move is the same (Win, lose, or draw) for white as before the move.
Feb 6, 1:13pm: Will an optimal first move for white be known by 2040? → Will an optimal first move for white in chess be known by 2040?