¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de Will an active male 1. Bundesliga player come out as homosexual / bi / queer before 2030??

Manifold Markets cotiza Yes al 64.2% a fecha de 30 de octubre de 2026.

Will an active male 1. Bundesliga player come out as homosexual / bi / queer before 2030?

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Sí 64.2%

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Actualizado hace 18 horas

Desactualizado

31 may 24, 23:07 UTC31 dic 29, 22:59 UTC

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It still seems like a long way away... but if you'd asked me in 2010 if I expected this to happen by 2020, I'd have been optimistic.

Will this milestone happen in this decade?
For this to resolve yes, the player must come out of their own accord, either in a planned statement or in a spontaneous way (but not through a leak by a third party or something like that). "Active" player means being part of the squad of a 1.
Bundesliga team, even if the player doesn't get any minutes of playing time in that season.
They must have played in a Bundesliga game before though.
If there's any ambiguity about the player coming out as "homosexual / bi / queer", I'll judge this based on the general consensus in the media.