Will a dust storm pick up material from the Great Salt Lake and cause significant health concerns by 2030?
ClimaOne-Off3aManifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actualNo 62%
Pronosticadores
11
Tipo de pregunta
binary
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 1 hora
Retrasado19 mar 23, 1:06 UTC2 ene 30, 7:59 UTC
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KalshiReglas
This market is intended to predict whether or not the drying of the Great Salt Lake will both continue to occur and have significant negative effects to human health in the surroundings region (on a medium term timescale).
- It is very likely the dust storm would need to meet the following requirements for me to resolve this as Yes:
- Contains a large amount of (presumably poisonous, likely arsenic laden) material from the Great Salt Lake lake bed
- Is expected to cause specifically attributable negative health affects (over the victims lifetime) to greater than 500 people and/or required more than $10,000,000 to mitigate the negative effects of (possibly through economic losses of Shelter In Place or Evacuation orders)
- Recieved reporting by a major news outlet (respected news outlets in the SLC region count).
- Please feel free to ask questions about how I would resolve this in various cases in the comments.