¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de Will a president of the USA die while in office before the end of 2050?

Manifold Markets cotiza Yes al 58.5% a fecha de 30 de octubre de 2026.

Will a president of the USA die while in office before the end of 2050

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Pronóstico comunitario actual

Sí 58.5%

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Metodología

Play-money forecasting platform

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Pronóstico

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Actualizado hace 1 hora

Retrasado

24 jun 24, 17:44 UTC31 dic 50, 22:59 UTC

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Resultado24hProbabilidad

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Historical data shows that eight U.S. Presidents have died in office, with the last occurrence in 1963.

But will there be more before the end of 2050? It doesn't matter how he or she dies, only if she does.
So natural death and things like assassinations count.
The question will resolve YES if a president of the USA actually dies while serving a term before the end of 2050 and it resolves NO if it doesn't happen by then.