Will a hurricane be designated "Category 6" on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale by the NHC by the end of 2030?
ClimaOne-Off4a
Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptableAviso de calidad de datosDatos de la fuente degradados
Datos del 26 oct 2026, 3:24 UTC · política pm-quality-4
Pronóstico comunitario actualNo 71.8%
Pronosticadores
14
Tipo de pregunta
binary
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 15 horas
Desactualizado6 feb 24, 0:31 UTC1 ene 31, 7:59 UTC
Tendencias
Mercados Relacionados
Preguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, no una comparación de contratos equivalentes.
On the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, to what levels will the 2026 Atlantic season storms reach?
Manifold MarketsOn the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, to what levels will the 2027 Atlantic season storms reach?
Manifold MarketsWill the hurricane wind speed record be broken before 2028?
Manifold MarketsReglas
Context: https://eos.org/articles/weve-already-seen-category-6-hurricanes-now-scientists-want-to-make-it-official
- That scale may not capture the risk posed by the most intense storms as the world warms, the authors wrote.
- They suggest a sixth category that encompasses storms with winds greater than 192 miles per hour (309 kilometers per hour).
- This market resolves YES if, by the end of 2030, a storm somewhere in the world has been designated Category 6 by the NHC.
- It resolves NO if no storm has been designated.
- This includes if the NHC has recognized the expansion of the scale, but no storm meets the criteria.
