¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de Will a California State entity create a market on Manifold by end of 2027??

Manifold Markets cotiza No al 92% a fecha de 28 de octubre de 2026.

Will a California State entity create a market on Manifold by end of 2027?

Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptable

Pronóstico comunitario actual

No 92%

Pronosticadores

Tipo de pregunta

binary

Metodología

Play-money forecasting platform

Tipo de fuente

Pronóstico

Datos de mercado

Actualizado hace 38 minutos

31 ene 23, 6:42 UTC1 ene 28, 7:59 UTC

Tendencias

Resultado24hProbabilidad

Reglas

The account cannot be owned by a person who works for the state of California - the government entity itself must own it.

This is one of a series of markets regarding whether select individuals or organizations will become Manifold users and create at least one market by the end of 2027 (~5 years).
The time period is intentionally long, as these markets measure both (i) the propensity of the given person/organization to join Manifold, and (ii) Manifold's anticipated adoption by the public over time.
To resolve positively, I must be reasonably confident that the Manifold account really is the entity they purport to be.