Who will release the first model to be credibly accused of being responsible for at least 100 deaths?
TecnologíaOne-OffManifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptableAviso de calidad de datosDatos de la fuente degradados
Datos del 14 oct 2026, 15:21 UTC · política pm-quality-4
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Pronosticadores
29
Tipo de pregunta
multiple choice
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Cambio 7d
0.0 pts
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 22 minutos
Tendencias
Reglas
Credible accusations must be made or linked to in the comments to count for resolution.
- Once a credible accusation is posted, the question will resolve a month later, to give time for other accusations to surface.
- Deaths caused through any causal mechanism count, as long as they aren't too butterfly-effect-y.
- They must be specific deaths traced to the model.
- Feel free to ask about specific scenarios and I'll answer whether they count.
- Rulings: 10-3-2023: If there are multiple listed organizations responsible for training the model (e.g. one organization did pretraining and the other did fine-tuning), it resolves to the organization that spent the most compute directly on training (for current models, this only counts the compute costs of the forward and backward passes).
