Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actualNeither by end of 2035 47%Líder entre 3 opciones
Pronosticadores
8
Tipo de pregunta
multiple choice
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Cambio 7d
0.0 pts
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 17 horas
Desactualizado1 jun 26, 14:10 UTC31 dic 35, 23:00 UTC
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Resolution criteria
- Resolves to whichever party first launches a crewed spacecraft on a trajectory passing within ~50,000 km of Mars.
- "USA" includes any US-based company (SpaceX, etc.) or public agency (NASA). "China" includes CNSA or any Chinese entity.
- A landing is NOT required — a flyby trajectory with crew aboard at the time of launch is sufficient.
- Resolved by launch date.
- If a landing mission flies by Mars en route, it counts as a flyby for this purpose.