Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptableAviso de calidad de datosDatos de la fuente degradados
Datos del 25 oct 2026, 0:50 UTC · política pm-quality-4
Pronóstico comunitario actualGavin Newsom 71.6%Líder entre 19 opciones
Pronosticadores
19
Tipo de pregunta
multiple choice
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Cambio 7d
-3.7 pts
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 14 horas
Desactualizado12 dic 25, 22:34 UTC31 dic 28, 23:59 UTC
Tendencias
Mercados Relacionados
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Manifold MarketsReglas
Resolution criteria
- This market resolves YES for any candidate who finishes in the top 2 (first or second place) in any single state's Democratic primary election.(by popular vote, not delegates) The 2028 presidential election is scheduled for November 7, 2028, with primaries occurring in the months prior.
- Resolution will be determined by official state primary results published by state election authorities and major news outlets covering the 2028 Democratic primary.
- Note: Democrats have no clear presidential primary calendar for 2028, so the specific states and timing remain to be determined by the DNC.
- Must be a STATE!
- Democrats Abroad,American Samoa, Northern Mariana Islands, Guam, US Virgin Islands,