Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actual
Lee Harvey Oswald (acting alone) 85.5%Líder entre 18 opciones
Lee Harvey Oswald (acting alone) 85.5%Pronosticadores
240
Tipo de pregunta
multiple choice
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Cambio 7d
0.0 pts
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 11 horas
Desactualizado3 jul 23, 7:46 UTC1 ene 30, 7:59 UTC
Tendencias
Mercados Relacionados
Preguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, no una comparación de contratos equivalentes.
Will there be a consensus amongst scholars and historians as to who orchestrated JFK's assassination by 2030?
Manifold MarketsJFK assassination linked to Aliens before 2040
Manifold MarketsTrump Declassifies Major information regarding the JFK assassination.
Manifold MarketsPrime Minister of Israel after the next election?
PolymarketWhich party will win the U.S. House?
KalshiWhich party will win the House in 2026?
PolymarketReglas
Resolves to the rough consensus among non-US-state-affiliated scholars, researchers, and historians of the identity of the final orchestrator of the assassination of President John F. Kennedy at the start of 2030 (or N/A if no such consensus exists).
- "Final orchestrator" means the entity most responsible for directly initiating the chain of events that led to the assasination.
- If the CIA enlisted the mafia to help with the assassination, this will resolve 100% CIA.
- If the CIA and mafia are co-equal partners in carrying out the assasination, this will resolve 50% CIA, 50% mafia, etc.