Which Scott Aaronson AI world will come to pass?

DeportesOne-OffChess124a

Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosBien calibrado

Aviso de calidad de datosDatos obsoletos

Datos del 22 jun 2026, 3:43 UTC · política pm-quality-2

Pronóstico comunitario actual

AI-Fizzle: AI tech doesn't have a huge impact 10%

Líder entre 5 opciones

Pronosticadores

Tipo de pregunta

multiple choice

Metodología

Play-money forecasting platform

Tipo de fuente

Pronóstico

Datos de mercado

Actualizado hace 23 días

Desactualizado

30 ene 24, 2:5331 dic 50, 22:59

Tendencias

Resultado24hProbabilidad

Solo fondos simulados, sin dinero realNo es asesoramiento financiero

Resultado elegido

AI-Fizzle: AI tech doesn't have a huge impact10%

Apuesta (USDT)

Reglas

Based on Scott Aaronson's Five Worlds of AI and this metaculus question.

Resolves based on the opinions of Manifold moderators in 2150.
The metaculus question uses 2050, which seems plausibly too early for an actually correct resolution, but they're both too late for profit-seeking bets.
In this scenario, AI “runs out of steam” fairly soon.
AI still has a significant impact on the world (so it’s not the same as a “cryptocurrency fizzle”), but relative to current expectations, this would be considered a disappointment.
Rather than the industrial or computer revolutions, AI might be compared in this case to nuclear power: people were initially thrilled about the seemingly limitless potential, but decades later, that potential remains mostly unrealized.

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Reglas

Based on Scott Aaronson's Five Worlds of AI and this metaculus question.

Resolves based on the opinions of Manifold moderators in 2150.
The metaculus question uses 2050, which seems plausibly too early for an actually correct resolution, but they're both too late for profit-seeking bets.
In this scenario, AI “runs out of steam” fairly soon.
AI still has a significant impact on the world (so it’s not the same as a “cryptocurrency fizzle”), but relative to current expectations, this would be considered a disappointment.
Rather than the industrial or computer revolutions, AI might be compared in this case to nuclear power: people were initially thrilled about the seemingly limitless potential, but decades later, that potential remains mostly unrealized.

Which Scott Aaronson AI world will come to pass?

DeportesOne-OffChess124a

Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosBien calibrado

Aviso de calidad de datosDatos obsoletos

Datos del 22 jun 2026, 3:43 UTC · política pm-quality-2

Pronóstico comunitario actual

AI-Fizzle: AI tech doesn't have a huge impact 10%

Líder entre 5 opciones

Pronosticadores

Tipo de pregunta

multiple choice

Metodología

Play-money forecasting platform

Tipo de fuente

Pronóstico

Datos de mercado

Actualizado hace 23 días

Desactualizado

30 ene 24, 2:5331 dic 50, 22:59

Tendencias

Resultado24hProbabilidad

Solo fondos simulados, sin dinero realNo es asesoramiento financiero

Resultado elegido

AI-Fizzle: AI tech doesn't have a huge impact10%

Apuesta (USDT)

Reglas

Based on Scott Aaronson's Five Worlds of AI and this metaculus question.

Resolves based on the opinions of Manifold moderators in 2150.
The metaculus question uses 2050, which seems plausibly too early for an actually correct resolution, but they're both too late for profit-seeking bets.
In this scenario, AI “runs out of steam” fairly soon.
AI still has a significant impact on the world (so it’s not the same as a “cryptocurrency fizzle”), but relative to current expectations, this would be considered a disappointment.
Rather than the industrial or computer revolutions, AI might be compared in this case to nuclear power: people were initially thrilled about the seemingly limitless potential, but decades later, that potential remains mostly unrealized.

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KALSHI

Party of Next Prime Minister of Romania?

2,2 mil €

Independent/Technocrat: 52%

POLYMARKET

Which of these Language Models will beat me at chess?

1,7 mil €

GPT-5: 0%

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Sinquefield Cup Winner

1,4 mil €

Maxime Vachier-Lagrave: 10%

KALSHI

Will OpenAI achieve "very high level of confidence" in their "Superalignment" solutions by 2027-07-06?

875,3 €

Sí: 3%

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Activos en estos temas

BitcoinBTC$65,416.62+2.21%

EthereumETH$1,929.76+3.05%

SolanaSOL$78.01+1.17%

DogecoinDOGE$0.0748+0.76%

XRPXRP$1.13+2.45%

BNBBNB$581.74+0.30%

Noticias Relacionadas

Polymarket odds put Mbappé at 32.5% to win 2026 Ballon d'Or after +5.45ppBlockchain.News

SodaBot Integrates with SportixAI to Advance AI-Powered SportsFI InfrastructureBlockchain Reporter

Polymarket Golden Ball market stays 50-50 as World Cup quarter-finals loomBlockchain.News

Ripple becomes Kansas Jayhawks sports sponsor with XRP patch to appear on jerseysThe Block

Ronaldo says World Cup goodbye as Polymarket Golden Ball odds sit at 50%Blockchain.News

Kraken’s FIFA deal: Crypto’s first world cupCrypto News

Reglas

Based on Scott Aaronson's Five Worlds of AI and this metaculus question.

Resolves based on the opinions of Manifold moderators in 2150.
The metaculus question uses 2050, which seems plausibly too early for an actually correct resolution, but they're both too late for profit-seeking bets.
In this scenario, AI “runs out of steam” fairly soon.
AI still has a significant impact on the world (so it’s not the same as a “cryptocurrency fizzle”), but relative to current expectations, this would be considered a disappointment.
Rather than the industrial or computer revolutions, AI might be compared in this case to nuclear power: people were initially thrilled about the seemingly limitless potential, but decades later, that potential remains mostly unrealized.