¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de Which organisation will be first to successfully land a human that walks on Mars??

Manifold Markets cotiza SpaceX al 78.6% a fecha de 28 de octubre de 2026.

Which organisation will be first to successfully land a human that walks on Mars?

Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptable

Pronóstico comunitario actual

SpaceX 78.6%

Líder entre 4 opciones

Pronosticadores

Tipo de pregunta

multiple choice

Metodología

Play-money forecasting platform

Tipo de fuente

Pronóstico

Cambio 7d

0.0 pts

Datos de mercado

Actualizado hace 10 horas

Desactualizado

11 may 24, 17:01 UTC1 ene 00, 12:59 UTC

Tendencias

Resultado24hProbabilidad

Reglas

If there is a joint effort between two organisations (eg spaceX and NASA) I'll resolve to the one that paid for the trip.

For example a spaceX rocket landing on the moon, paid for by the Artemis program, would resolve to NASA (if this market were about the moon.
If an organisation sells tickets, it's the organisation paying for the trip and not the people/organisation buying the tickets.
If they share the cost I'll resolve to the share of the cost the organisations pay.
(https://manifold.markets/embed/Daniel_MC/will-an-optimus-robot-walk-on-mars)