Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptableAviso de calidad de datosDatos de la fuente degradados
Datos del 26 oct 2026, 7:09 UTC · política pm-quality-4
Pronóstico comunitario actualBefore 2033 68.4%Líder entre 10 opciones
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multiple choice
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Cambio 7d
0.0 pts
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Actualizado hace 10 horas
Desactualizado22 feb 26, 18:36 UTC1 ene 51, 7:59 UTC
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The Winds of Winter is the planned sixth novel in A Song of Ice and Fire by George R. R. Martin.
- Each threshold resolves YES if the book is officially published and available for purchase in any format (print, digital, or audio) through at least one major retailer (e.g., Amazon, Barnes & Noble, or equivalent) before the listed date.
- If the novel is split into multiple volumes, the first volume's publication date counts.
- A title change does not affect resolution as long as it is marketed as the sixth ASOIAF novel.
- Each threshold resolves NO if George R. R. Martin dies before the book's official publication date, even if a completed manuscript exists.
- Posthumous publication does not count.
