Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptableAviso de calidad de datosDatos de la fuente degradados
Datos del 26 oct 2026, 1:15 UTC · política pm-quality-4
Pronóstico comunitario actual
Before 2033 77.6%Líder entre 7 opciones
Before 2033 77.6%Pronosticadores
14
Tipo de pregunta
multiple choice
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Cambio 7d
0.0 pts
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 12 horas
Desactualizado24 dic 25, 8:58 UTC1 ene 34, 7:59 UTC
Tendencias
Mercados Relacionados
Preguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, no una comparación de contratos equivalentes.
Will Level 5 self driving cars be available by (YEAR)?
Manifold MarketsWill fully autonomous (level 5) self-driving cars be available in a major US city before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill a fully autonomous, Level 5 self driving car be available for purchase in the US by the year 2040?
Manifold MarketsOnce level 5 self-driving cars are available to the public, will any pre-2024 Tesla model be capable of it?
Manifold MarketsBTC price on Oct 30, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
KalshiElon Musk # tweets October 24 - October 26, 2026?
PolymarketReglas
The impetus for this market is asking whether Elon Musk is correct in rejecting lidar sensors for self-driving.
- Did the Tesla robotaxis in Austin in summer 2025 count?
- No, even if we decide those were level 4, we need wider deployment (see next FAQ item) than that to count for this market.
- How wide is "widely deployed"?
- 100 million autonomous miles, with zero fatalities that are the fault of the AI.
- Is this specific to Tesla?