When will the world population shrink year-over-year for the first time?
Macro y economíaManifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptableAviso de calidad de datosDatos de la fuente degradados
Datos del 25 oct 2026, 11:35 UTC · política pm-quality-4
Pronóstico comunitario actualBefore 2100 85.9%Líder entre 8 opciones
Pronosticadores
27
Tipo de pregunta
multiple choice
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Cambio 7d
0.0 pts
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 10 horas
Desactualizado20 mar 24, 20:06 UTC2 feb 00, 22:59 UTC
Tendencias
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PolymarketReglas
The market will resolve positively when human population in a given year for the first time (after the creation of the question) is lower than in the previous year, according to https://ourworldindata.org/population-growth or an equivalent source.
- The "world population" is a number of biological humans living on Earth.
- This does not include AIs, ems and people living on other planets.
- If the first such year is say 2040, i.e. population in 2040 is lower than in 2039, then "the named outcome" will resolve as NO (because 2040 is not the named outcome), but 2050 and subsequent options will resolve as YES.
- If the population never shrinks, all the answers will resolve as NO (and possibly I will add more options further in the future).
- I do not bet on my own questions.