Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actual
Not by 2030 60.6%Líder entre 7 opciones
Not by 2030 60.6%Pronosticadores
13
Tipo de pregunta
multiple choice
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Cambio 7d
+0.6 pts
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 15 horas
Desactualizado5 ene 25, 8:35 UTC1 ene 31, 12:59 UTC
Tendencias
Mercados Relacionados
Preguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, no una comparación de contratos equivalentes.
Wins Nobel Prize in Literature before 2030
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Manifold MarketsNational Book Award for Translated Literature
KalshiNational Book Award for Young People's Literature
KalshiReglas
Mircea Cărtărescu is a renowned Romanian novelist, poet, and essayist who has been consistently mentioned as a top contender for the Nobel Prize in Literature.
- He was among the favorites for the 2024 prize and continues to be considered a strong candidate for future awards.
- Resolution Criteria
- This market will resolve to the year in which Mircea Cărtărescu wins the Nobel Prize in Literature.
- If he wins the prize in any year from 2025 through 2030, the corresponding year option will resolve as YES, with all other options resolving as NO.
- If he does not win the prize by the end of 2030, "the named outcome" will resolve as YES, with all other options resolving as NO.
