Aviso de calidad de datosDatos de la fuente degradados
Datos del 26 oct 2026, 6:34 UTC · política pm-quality-4
Pronóstico comunitario actual
Labour > Conservative > Reform > Lib Dem 24.7%Líder entre 8 opciones
Pronosticadores
17
Tipo de pregunta
multiple choice
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Cambio 7d
+10.0 pts
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 6 horas
Desactualizado12 oct 25, 16:57 UTC1 sept 29, 22:59 UTC
Tendencias
Reglas
This market resolves to the four largest parties by number of seats in the UK House of Commons following the next UK general election after the July 2024 election.
- Answers should have the form A > B > C > D, where A is the party with the most seats, B is the party with the second-highest number of seats, and so on.
- Note that this may not correspond to the four parties with the most votes, due to the UK's first-past-the-post electoral system.
- If there is a tie, this market will resolve to PROB, with all answers that are a valid order resolving equally (e.g. if the two largest parties A and B have the same number of seats, and parties C and D are the next largest and also tied, then four answers will resolve to 25% each, i.e. A > B > C > D; B > A > C > D; A > B > D > C; and B > A > D > C).
- Here are the top-four parties by seats for every election since 2000:
- 2024 election: Labour > Conservative > Lib Dem > SNP
