Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actual
Earth orbit (ISS, Tiangong, or any crewed orbital vehicle/station) 46.1%Líder entre 4 opciones
Pronosticadores
3
Tipo de pregunta
multiple choice
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Cambio 7d
0.0 pts
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 9 horas
Desactualizado4 ago 26, 13:16 UTC31 dic 30, 23:59 UTC
Tendencias
Mercados Relacionados
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FutuurReglas
Resolution criteria:
- Resolves based on the first confirmed human fatality that occurs from the market creation date onward.
- Options are determined by the mission's overall destination/purpose, not the phase in which death occurs — e.g., a fatality during launch of an Artemis mission resolves "Lunar crewed missions", not "Earth orbit".
- Deaths occurring from lift-off throughout reentry and landing are included.
- Deaths during on-ground tests and activities before liftoff or after landing are excluded.
- Resolves N/A in case no fatality occurs before 2031.
Mercados abiertos
SpacePOLYMARKETWhich company has the best AI model end of September?
- Anthropic+1.0pt89%
- OpenAI-2.2pt9%
- Google2%
+18 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 2,3 M €
- Volumen 24h
- 103,1 mil €
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- No56.5%
- Yes43.5%
- Volumen total
- 57,4 mil €
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- 57,4 mil €
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- Anthropic+0.5pt58.8%
- SpaceX-3.5pt39.2%
- OpenAI+0.1pt2.1%
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KALSHIWhen will Tesla and SpaceX merge?
- Before 2028-2.0pt63%
- Before Apr 1, 2027-1.0pt51%
- Before May 1, 2027-1.0pt49%
+8 resultados más
KALSHIHow many launches will SpaceX have in September?
- Above 8-6.0pt84%
- Above 9-21.0pt52%
- Above 10-4.0pt18%
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- Volumen total
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- 202767%
- June 30, 202753%
- 2026+1.3pt6%
- Volumen total
- 817,9 mil €
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- Third-best AI Lab end of September?
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Preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de What kind of space mission will involve the next death??
- Manifold Markets cotiza Earth orbit (ISS, Tiangong, or any crewed orbital vehicle/station) al 46% a fecha de 8 de septiembre de 2026.
- ¿Cuándo se resuelve What kind of space mission will involve the next death??
- Está previsto que What kind of space mission will involve the next death? se resuelva el 31 de diciembre de 2030.
- ¿Cómo se liquida What kind of space mission will involve the next death??
- Manifold Markets liquida este mercado del siguiente modo: Resolution criteria: